UAE Temperatures 3-4°C Above Average with Increased Rainfall Expected

Temperatures across the United Arab Emirates are currently running approximately 3 to 4 degrees Celsius higher than the seasonal average, according to Ibrahim Al Jarwan, chairman of the Emirates Astronomy Society. Despite some improvement in weather as the country transitions into cooler months, residents continue to experience warmer conditions.

Al Jarwan, speaking on Dubai Radio's Direct Line program, attributed the elevated temperatures to the El Nino climate phenomenon, which is expected to intensify between October and early December. He also forecasted above-average rainfall during this period as part of the El Nino pattern.

Typically, daytime highs in early October range in the mid-30s Celsius, with overnight lows around 22 to 23 degrees Celsius. However, recent data from the National Centre of Meteorology (NCM) indicates maximum temperatures between 37°C and 43°C across much of the country. This persistent warmth aligns with the relatively dry autumn conditions previously predicted.

Humidity levels remain high, particularly in coastal areas where they can exceed 80 percent, while inland regions often experience levels above 70 percent. This moisture contributes to frequent morning fog, which occurs on more than ten days in both October and November. Al Jarwan emphasized that such humidity and fog are typical for this time of year, distinguishing these seasonal features from the ongoing elevated temperatures.

Explaining El Nino's impact, Al Jarwan noted that temperature shifts in the Pacific Ocean can affect weather patterns globally, including the Arabian Peninsula. El Nino events often bring above-average rainfall to various regions, though effects vary by location. Stronger El Nino episodes may lead to extreme weather, ranging from droughts to heavy rains and strong winds. He clarified that El Nino is a natural climate cycle rather than an environmental crisis like ozone depletion.

Looking ahead, Al Jarwan expects temperatures to moderate as the UAE progresses further into autumn. He referenced the local seasonal calendar, stating the country is currently in the "Durr al Sittin" period and will enter "Durr al Sab’in" around mid-October, which typically features milder weather before winter. The onset of strong winds and rain-bearing systems could accelerate cooling, though such seasonal wind events have not yet begun.

Previously, NCM weather expert Dr. Ahmed Habib indicated that the UAE was likely to experience a hotter summer than in recent years. He connected the regional warming to El Nino but noted that actual temperatures depend on prevailing weather systems. Habib explained that a thermal low linked to the Indian monsoon is pushing hot air into southern UAE, causing daytime temperatures to reach 47°C to 48°C. Additionally, northwesterly winds carrying dry desert air have been limiting cloud formation and rainfall. The UAE's primary summer rainfall period usually occurs between mid-July and mid-August, when the Intertropical Convergence Zone shifts northward, allowing moisture to support rain clouds, especially in eastern areas and occasionally near Liwa.