UAE May Experience Above-Average Rainfall from October to January, NCM Says

Weather models suggest that the UAE could see rainfall levels exceeding the usual amounts between October and January, coinciding with the country's cooler and wetter season, according to an expert from the National Centre of Meteorology (NCM).

Ahmed Habib, a meteorologist at the NCM, emphasized that while some models indicate wetter conditions, the exact volume of rainfall remains uncertain and should not be interpreted as a forecast of extreme storms or flooding directly caused by El Niño.

El Niño, characterized by unusually warm surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, is currently strong and is generally considered a sign of potentially beneficial rainfall. However, the NCM clarified on September 11 that heavy rain could occur only if suitable atmospheric conditions develop over the UAE.

El Niño's Influence on UAE Weather

Habib explained that El Niño is a global climate phenomenon affecting weather patterns worldwide but does not directly cause specific weather events in the UAE. Its effects are mediated through broader atmospheric circulation changes, which can vary by region.

He stated, "El Niño is not affecting the UAE [directly]. It's a climate phenomenon, which means the entire world will be affected — maybe East Asia, Europe, or America." Historical data show that El Niño's presence does not consistently correlate with extreme weather in the UAE.

The NCM has also addressed misinformation circulating on social media that links El Niño directly to severe flooding or unusually heavy rainfall in the UAE, urging residents to rely on official forecasts and warnings.

Local Weather Systems Determine Rainfall

Although El Niño can influence atmospheric circulation globally, the actual weather in the UAE depends on local conditions such as moisture levels, water vapor, temperature profiles, and pressure systems.

Habib noted that atmospheric features like Rossby waves can affect where weather systems and heavy rainfall develop, but it is currently unclear whether such conditions will manifest over the UAE or elsewhere in the Middle East.

He added that despite the strong El Niño, the current pressure systems in the region are not conducive to extreme weather events. However, conditions may evolve as the season progresses, which is why long-range forecasts indicating wetter-than-average conditions should be considered separately from short-term weather predictions.

Seasonal Outlook for UAE Residents

For now, residents can expect a normal seasonal transition into autumn, with daytime temperatures remaining high—potentially reaching 44°C to 46°C—and increasing nighttime humidity that may lead to fog or mist, especially in coastal areas.